Disruptive Attributes and Uncertainty in Supply Chain Management

Abstract

This publication explores supply chain planning, through the development of a mathematical optimization model, the artifact, which comprises the analysis of supply chain behaviour for different scenarios of breakdown, interruptions in the supply and in the demand of products. Therefore, a mathematical formulation of the problem was created and implemented using the Python language. To validate the developed model, a practical case was resolved, related to the manufacture of coffee in capsules, for which several supply chain operational scenarios are simulated. The tested scenarios comprise the operation in the supply chain main links, that is, supplier, manufacturer, distributor and retailer, and different planning scenarios. The Design Science Research methodology was used to conduct the various stages of research, in order to be able to evaluate the impact of disruptive factors (supplies, deliveries, prices, etc.), their amplitudes (total, partial breaks, others) and duration of the occurrence. This work aims to contribute to a better understanding of the supply chain, particularly in terms of decision-making and planning of its operation, in various contexts and in the face of different disruptive factors.